Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Real Time Update (12/14/10)

[230pm] Post-fomc -










[130pm] Pre-fomc -

[8am] Overnight update - ......................... [1017am] Count update
(1017am) INDU has been stronger than SPX this AM. Odds favor higher highs per the red count.

Real Time Update (12/13/10)

[1215pm]Count update - ............................[320pm] Count update-

[830am] Overnight update - ....................... [940am] ES

Thursday, December 9, 2010

Real Time Update (12/9/10)

[1030am] Squiggles - .................................[1110am] Tracking Count update -
Per ES(March), D=0.623xB on the proposed ED assuming D has ended. C=0.943xA.
Max for E is 1242.75 to 1243.25. But no ED in INDU and NDX. Ambiguity remains.
[12pm update] lower low registered. Now
Per ES(March), D=0.681xB on the proposed ED assuming D has ended. C=0.943xA.
Max for E is 1241.75 to 1242.25. But no ED in INDU and NDX. Ambiguity remains.


[750am] Overnight update -

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Real Time Update (12/8/10)

[255pm] Squiggles (ES)-










[1252pm] Squiggles (ES)- ............................... [150pm] Squggles (ES) -
It's possible that the red c(b) is actually a [W] of (b) , followed by a sharp decline [X], now followed by another a-b-c up swing as [Y] of (b). Will updated the labels on the next update if necessary.

[945am] Squiggles (ES) - ...........................[1059am] Squiggles (ES) -
[755am] Overnight update -
Five waves down in stocks from yesterday's high. Chart 1 shows the larger structure with bearish (black and red) and bullish (green) counts. Chart 2 offers a squiggle count.

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Real Time Update (12/7/10)

[305pm] Squiggles -











[220pm] the larger count -

[1230pm] Squiggles -
A five down from the AM high in ES / SPX but less obvious in YM / INDU.
Possibilities include downward reversal or an ABC with B as a triangle.
Nasdaq has remained relatively stronger than SPX/INDU










[740am] Overnight update -
We have an upward thrust on of a classic triangle as discussed last night (955pm entry). The primary count is that the pending high is [i] or [b], with a pullback as [ii] or [c] coming. The text box in the chart lists nearly all possible count of the pending high with respect to the larger count.

Notably, if the market extends to make the proposed small degree (v) longer than the corresponding (iii), the end of the triangle is likely a the end of a wave B (green) or we have a nested 1s2s situation with shallow pullbacks.

Monday, December 6, 2010

Real Time Update (12/6/10)

[157pm] Squiggles -
Here's the bullish count assuming the triangle is complete. Time will tell.

[125pm] Squiggles (INDU) -
Potentially corrective 7 wave (or A-B-ED) rise from the recent low, leaving the larger count with bearish a tiny degree wave c or small-degree wave e of the triangle or larger-degree wave c (no triangle) to follow. Rising above the AM high invalidates the first option and most likely the second option and likely the third option.

[1127am] Count update (ES) -
On the small-degree 4th wave triangle count, the market could still be in a complex wave C of the triangle. Leave room for lower lows if that's the case. If wave C is already complete, wave E is in progress by definition.










[705am] Overnight update -
Stocks are either in a small degree 4th wave triangle or have started a 2nd wave / [c] wave (red) pullback. By definition, the triangle most likely needs the overnight low to hold.

Saturday, December 4, 2010

Real Time Update (12/3/10)

[251pm] Squiggles (YM and INDU) -
[1141am]Squiggle update (YM) -------- [127pm] INDU squiggles
invalidation point is the pre-market crash extreme.
[840am and 902am] YM, post jobs report -
[817am] New contract high in ES -

[750am] Overnight update -

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Real Time Update (12/1/10)

[242pm] Squiggle count of the impulse update










[1pm] TRANsportation Average makes new recovery high
RUT exceeded its Nov high as well, and is only a couple of index points shy of its April high.










[12pm] Count update (YM, ES)
eliminating the triangle wave [b], leaving the flat wave [b] or impulse up (say minor wave 5-up or A-up) intact.
[1115am] Squiggles of the impulse (YM)










[820am] Overnight update (ES, YM, NQ)