Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Real Time Update (10/6/10)

[EOD Update] Click here for the EOD update.

[225pm] Squiggle count update (ES + NQ) -
Red or blue, see what you wish to see.







[2pm] Count update (SPX) -
All you can count version -
[red] The top is in. No confirmation on the squiggles yet. The decline in senior indices look rather corrective.
[green] v of (v) up is likely in progress. Does not work for COMPQ, NDX, RUT.
[orange] ED. The decline so far could be just [A] of d. Does not work for NDX.
[blue] A regular five up to the sky from the most recent low. NDX is a concern as there's not much room to retrace with respect to the April high. However, NDX seems to have its own ideas often times (see the long term chart on the right)
[1155am] Count update (futures) -
All clear?

[827am] count update (ES) - See the second chart below.
[835am projections] current low is 1153.25, which lowers the potential target zone to 1163.75-1170.25.
[817am] Squiggle update -
The second leg of decline on IMF downgrades US growth outlook and job loss in the ADP report. See [756AM] and [730am] entry -
[756AM] Squiggle update (NQ)-
If the pullback is not a completed zigzag (the alt count), one could count a valid five-down followed by an expanded flat which suggests one more lower low. Time will tell. See [730AM] entry for the larger count.

[740AM] Overnight FX update (DX + Euro)-
A turn in the euro on Fitch's downgrade of Ireland supports DX. The proposed count suggests a bottom in DX and a top in euro (red-count). The blue count in euro shows the extension count. Perhaps at most one more up-down/down-up sequence before a trend change.
[730AM] Overnight stock update (ES + NQ) -
Most likely a fourth wave in progress, with a lower chance of a more significant high.
[745am-projections] Low of the pullback is 1055.50 at the moment, which may of may not be the end of wave iv. Based on this low, potential target zone is 1165-1172, and 1162 just above the 1160 high if it is a quick one.

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