Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Real Time Update (10/20/10)

[EOD] click here for the EOD update.

[221pm] NDX / SPX diverge
A truncated fifth wave up is unlikely. Note the divergence between NDX and SPX today.

[136pm] Squiggles (ES)-
Wave (iv) incomplete (black) or already done (green).
See the second chart below.
[1135am] COMPQ -
Kiss goodbye for now or march higher
[1045am] Count update (ES) - [1052am] Squiggles -
Prudent to leave some room for the possibility that the pullback is not complete as indicated on the Chart.
Fresh USD weakness particularly with respect to Euro and Yen has supported stocks this morning.
[750am] Overnight cross market (aud/jpy_spx) -
The proposed potential ED in Aud.Jpy, if it plays out, supports a topping process in stocks - but yet to complete (i.e. a fourth wave interpretation in both, may need to raise the degree of the proposed fourth wave by one notch.)

[740am] Overnight currencies (DX, Eur.USD) -
No confirmation yet of a larger impulse in either.
[725am] Overnight stocks (ES) -
The rebound from yesterday's low is a decent but weak five so far, retracing a bit more than 50% of the decline from the nominal high. See yesterday's EOD update for additional discussions. We'll see if it morphs or has follow through.

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