Sunday, October 31, 2010

Real Time Update (10/29/10)

[MTU Weekend Ed.] Click here for Moment of Truth Two (10/29/10).

[1250pm] Count update (SPX) -
Taking a stab at the blue count ...

[1225pm] Count update (NDX) -

[955am] Count update (NDX) -

[810am] Overnight stocks -
Q3 GDP at 830am.

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Real Time Update (10/27/10)

[EOD] Click here for the EOD udpate.

[215pm] Count update (ES)-
The rebound from today's low appears to be the c leg of an expanded flat. Leave room for one more potential squiggle low.

[1035am] Count update (SPX)-
Of the top three tracking counts, the rare expanding EDT count (red) is complete. The market needs to decline further to take out the contracting EDT count (blue) - or it could rebound here. The market needs to drop below the Oct 19 low and then the August high to take out the bullish count (green).

[836am & 850am] Overnight FX (DX, Aud/JPY)-
Still awaiting the resolution of a potential LD (bullish) or a fourth wave consolidation (bearish) in the USD index.
Regarding audjpy and spx, see if a potential ED in the works breaks prematurely.
[832am] Squiggles (ES)-
This is the squiggle per the bullish count (see the [820am] entry, point [3]). The labels from the recent high are applicable to the bearish count as well.

[820am] Overnight stocks -
[1] If minor 2 per the bearish count (red) topped at the recent high, the market needs to drop below the Oct 19 low by definition. That level is 1155.50 in the December ES contract.
[2] If minor 2 per the bearish count has one more squiggle high left, leave room for the Dow to truncate (or less likely, diverge?) as its recent high is within points of the April high.
[3] Minor wave 3 could have topped on 10/13 or at the recent high per the bullish count (green). By the spirit of alternation, minor wave 4 is likely a shallow retrace, possibly a triangle of a complex three given the wave structure so far. In conjunction with [1], dropping below the Oct 19 low alone is not a confirmation of a bearish top, but a required starting point.

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Real Time Update (10/26/10)

[EOD] Click hear for the EOD update.

[2pm] Squiggles(SPX) -

[1240pm] Squiggles(SPX) -
[1046am] Squiggles(SPX) -
Three large waves down and 7 small waves up so far, go figure. It has been a characteristic of this market for over a month.
[910am] Squiggle update (YM) -
[8am] Squiggle update (ES) -
7 waves down from the high so far.
[740am] Overnight update (ES, DX) -

Monday, October 25, 2010

Real Time Update (10/25/10)

[EOD] Click here for the EOD update.

[1050am] Count update (ES) -
[1010am] Count update (SPX) -
[745am] Overnight update (ES) -
[Sunday 908pm] Futures update (ES, YM) -
Currently, the Dow is lagging the SPX in futures. Two working squiggle counts - the black being a regular five extending, and the red being a potential ED.
We'll ignore Friday's AH's flash crash in dollar crosses for now. And the proposed ED in Aud.Jpy is still tracking.

Thursday, October 21, 2010

Real Time Update (10/21/10)

[EOD] Click here for the EOD update.

[1250pm] Count update (SPX) - [115pm] adds corresponding ES chart
If the high is not in, follow the pink or the blue count on SPX. [115pm] and the corresponding impulse count on ES.
[1140am] Squiggles (SPX) -
A nice five down in SPX, and extending or morphing.

[1020am] Count update(ES) -
Let's see if it subdivides higher.
[735am] Overnight FX (DX,Euro) -
See yesterday's [950pm] entry for additional thoughts.
[720am] Overnight stocks (ES, YM)-

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Real Time Update (10/20/10)

[EOD] click here for the EOD update.

[221pm] NDX / SPX diverge
A truncated fifth wave up is unlikely. Note the divergence between NDX and SPX today.

[136pm] Squiggles (ES)-
Wave (iv) incomplete (black) or already done (green).
See the second chart below.
[1135am] COMPQ -
Kiss goodbye for now or march higher
[1045am] Count update (ES) - [1052am] Squiggles -
Prudent to leave some room for the possibility that the pullback is not complete as indicated on the Chart.
Fresh USD weakness particularly with respect to Euro and Yen has supported stocks this morning.
[750am] Overnight cross market (aud/jpy_spx) -
The proposed potential ED in Aud.Jpy, if it plays out, supports a topping process in stocks - but yet to complete (i.e. a fourth wave interpretation in both, may need to raise the degree of the proposed fourth wave by one notch.)

[740am] Overnight currencies (DX, Eur.USD) -
No confirmation yet of a larger impulse in either.
[725am] Overnight stocks (ES) -
The rebound from yesterday's low is a decent but weak five so far, retracing a bit more than 50% of the decline from the nominal high. See yesterday's EOD update for additional discussions. We'll see if it morphs or has follow through.