Monday, September 20, 2010

Real Time Update (9/20/10)

[EOD Update] Click here for the EOD update.

[330PM]Count update
No ED, but it's getting close the top. I count the current peak as either [3] of v or [5] of v. With the exception of the RUT, major indices have taken out both June and August highs. The lagging RUT may support the current peak to be [3] of v. But the RUT counts well for a [5] of v, and if we end up with a lone running flat in the RUT, it would be acceptable too.

[205PM] SPX count update
A potential ED to conclude W3 (or the entire advance?)
[1150AM] SPX and RUT
[1110AM] Squiggle update (ES)

[1052AM] WSJ NEWS ALERT: Recession Ended in June 2009, Says NBER

The organization responsible for dating changes in the U.S. business cycle said the U.S. recession that started in December 2007 ended in June of last year.

In a statement on its website, the National Bureau of Economic Research said that in determining an end to the downturn, "the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity." As worries persist about the struggling U.S. economy and its future path, the NBER warned "any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007."

.... What about QE2 ?

[1045AM] Larger picture count update (SPX) -
This is Chart 3 (update) in Taking Stock (9/17/10). Now that $WLSH has exceeded both June and August highs, and $INDU has exceeded its June high and is poised to take out the August high. The blue line scenario is more likely playing out. We could see a top today or tomorrow AM.

[1036AM] Count update (SPX) -
One more down (4) and up (5) sequence likely.

[1010AM] Count update (ES) -
[705AM] Overnight Futures update -
See the prior entry below for the larger picture count.
[Sunday 1019PM] Futures update -
Leaning towards the green-count in SP500 and the blue-count in RUT. But the blue-count brings ES and TF in sync. Please see Taking Stock (9/17/10) for details.


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