Friday, September 17, 2010

Real Time Update (9/17/10)

[Weekend Commentary] Click Here.

[302PM] Count update (ES) -
The same counts shown in ES (Dec).

[245PM] Count update (SPX) -
Squiggles (right chart) at 252pm.
[1230PM] A potential ED is also possible.
As a follow up on the 1058AM entry, the way I've labeled the triangle makes it technically possible (in cash but not in futures) for the rebound to end as an ED - which would be less bullish than a regular five. This option is attractive as it allows the extended indices (i.e. NDX, COMPQ) to end in time and overly extend. and the laggards (i.e. INDU, SPX, TRAN, WLSH, RUT) to catch up.

[1023AM] Should you be feeling bullish or wishing for a bullish count, here's one (SPX) - triangles being triangles, they can be anywhere. We'll find out soon enough.

[1003AM] ES squiggles
[958AM] ES count update

[840AM] Bonds and FX

[750AM] Overnight update (ES) -
The overnight pump got ES above the August and June highs (Chart 1). It is important to monitor how many actual and mental stops get taken out this morning.

If it was an odd-looking triangle wave iv or wave b (Chart 2, purple), the high (at least a near term high) is likely in (Chart 3).

If it was a zigzag or combo wave iv or wave b, expect another run to a higher high (Chart 2 and Chart 3, red). [815am - replaced chart 3 with higher degree labels in certain labels - better form].

An expanded flat correction remains technically possible (Chart 2, green), but looks less likely. Chances are that the less the pullback, the less the upside. To the extent that the expanded flat (or a triangle) plays out, look out for a much higher high.

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