Thursday, September 16, 2010

Real Time Update (9/16/10)

[EOD Update] Click here for EOD update.

[319PM] SPX is likely leading
The dow just made a higher high, invalidating the triangle count as was indicated before. A wave [C]-down looks likely, unless some kind of ED wave v is playing out (which seems less likely).
[238PM] Which one is leading?
The dow? - bullish
The SPX? - bearish

[150PM] SPX count update -

[1140AM] SPX squiggles -

[1130AM] Thoughts on reconciling the small degree Dow Theory divergence between SPX and the DJ Transportation Average.

$TRAN has made a lower low, but SPX has not (yet). Here's a way to reconcile the divergence. Ambiguity remains as it does not conclusively resolve the near term bullish or bearish direction. The key element is which low (in futures or in the cash index) is the real low.

Given how high the low in $TRAN was on Aug 27th, odds seem to favor the low in the futures. If so, a fifth wave up / a fresh high is still missing.

[1036AM] Squiggle update (SPX) -
Squiggle count on the SPX cash index following the same line of thought.

[953AM] Squiggle update (ES) -
Typo on the label, the green (C)[B] to the far right should read (C)[C]

[840AM] Post-report update (ES) -
[715AM] Overnight update (ES) -

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