Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Real Time Update (9/15/10)

[EOD update] Clear here for EOD update.

[335PM] SPX count update -
Here's the count on the cash index to go with a triangle/flat wave iv or wave v already in progress.

[308] squiggles update (ES) -
Looks like a small five up on the SPX cash index, so leave room for the wave iv triangle (/blue labels).

[130PM] squiggles once more (ES) -
Things are starting to get interesting from a short term bearish perspective (again). We have a potential and completed wedge. The pull back could be just a wave [2] retrace (blue), or a larger wave [C] down (red), or even [3]-down?

[1250PM] The finer picture (SPX) -
As I commented yesterday, fifth waves (if it is one already) can be tricky.

[1126AM] The larger picture (ES) -

[1040AM] Squiggle update (ES) -
Wave iv is done OR triangle OR double three. Small chance of a bearish 12/12 or LD down.

[945AM] Squiggle update (ES) -
Likely corrective.

[810AM] Overnight update (Currencies) -
The intervention of the Yen may have offered a catalyst for a near term trend change - how convenient & too convenient? I'm skeptical that this is the end of the yen strength as It would be a truncated fifth wave from a multi-year perspective. At the moment, the best interpretation is that USD.JPY is at the end of (1)-leading diagonal of [5]. Assuming that a trend change has started, expect a weakening of the Yen to about 110yen/usd or 0.0090usd/yen at the end of wave (2) retrace.

At the same time, AUD.JPY broke out, again become in sync with SPX. Technically speaking, the triangle as outlined by the black trend lines in AUD.JPY does not get invalidated till the June high is violated. But the triangle is looking less appealing now, which would be supportive of SPX if the correlation continues.

[730AM] Overnight update (ES) -
ES retraced about 0.382 if this is wave iv. See yesterday's EOD update for context.

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