Thursday, September 30, 2010

Real Time Update (9/30/10)

[EOD Update] Click here for the EOD update.

[112PM] The dollar likely needs one more low (DX) -
[108PM] The larger picture (SPX) -
The top-in and top-not-in counts below map into COMPQ and RUT well. Let's see which one plays out.
[1142AM & 1150AM] Count update(ES and SPX) -
The red count shows the top is in.
The green count shows probably the only way for higher highs.
The green ii is the invalidation / confirmation point.

[1115AM &1117AM] Count update(SPX) -
[11AM] Count update(ES) -
likely, wave iv of (v) in progress or the top is in
[1015AM] Squiggle count update (ES) -

[928AM] Squiggles(ES/SPX and TF/RUT) -
TF(Dec RUT) has reached 0.618 of the proposed iii of (v). The near term bullish (blue) and bearish (red) squiggle counts for ES are shown in this chart.

[840AM] Overnight update (ES/SPX and TF/RUT) -

Real Time Update (9/29/10)

[EOD update] Click here for the EOD update

[312PM] Count update (SPX)-

[221PM] Count update (SPX)-
[1231PM] Count update (SPX)-
[1136AM] Count update (SPX)-
[1051AM] Count update (ES)-

[1010AM] ES tracking the blue count, and perhaps the green count too -
[817AM] Squiggles(ES) -
The squiggles on TR (RUT) appears to favor the blue count in ES. An odd looking [1]-up LD per the green count.
[8AM] Overnight update (ES and TF/RUT) -
A slight higher high overnight around 3AM. The divergence between RUT and the rest of the pack remains. Comments in yesterday's EOD update continue to be applicable.


Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Real Time Update (9/28/10)

[EOD Update] Click here for the EOD update.

[343PM] Higher high in RUT -
The other indices will likely follow.

[244PM] Squiggle update (INDU) -
[232PM] Squiggle update (INDU) -
[1155AM] A five up (SPX)-
[1035AM] Squiggle update(SPX)-
A budding five.

[1008AM] Count update (ES)- [1020AM] SPX-

[951AM] Count update (ES and SPX)-
The observations in the 740AM entry and last night apply, now even with an additional wave down. Note the similarity between the two declines in ES as indicated by the arrows. The Sept 23 low is a critical level.

[827AM] Euro -
[815AM] Gold -

[740AM] Overnight update (ES) -
The pullback has reached about a 0.618 retrace at the overnight low, has a decent text-book feel to it. In terms of the wave structure, it appears to be double-zigzag = [X] = zizzag or LD = [X] = sizzag to the overnight low.

Monday, September 27, 2010

Real Time Update (9/27/10)

[EOD Update] Click here for the EOD update.

[107PM] Squiggle count update (ES) -
Refer to the 1123AM entry for the larger count.
[1131AM] $TRAN -
The transportation average appears to be catching up, in its own lagging way, finishing [5] of i of (v) [or (v)].

[1123AM] Count update (ES) -
Odds continue to favor this being a ii-down of (v)-up pullback. There's a decent double zigzag structure in ES, which may or may not be complete.
Typo in the chart, 1141 should be 1146.
[10AM] Count update (ES) -

[740AM] Overnight futures update (ES) -
The primary count is that wave i-up of (v)-up ended at the overnight high and wave ii-down is in progress. There's a small chance that the top is in but the pullback counts well as a three so far.
See That's All Folks! (9/24/10) for the larger picture count and thoughts.

Friday, September 24, 2010

Real Time Update (9/24/10)

[MTU Weekend Commentary] That's All Folks!

[344PM] Squiggle count update (ES)

[1242PM] Squiggle count update (ES)

assuming (v)-up.

[1120AM] Thoughts about a bull and bear trap
No wedge.
Some thoughts regarding a potential expanded flat in the senior indices and a zigzag with an expanded triangle in the middle for the RUT. See the orange count.
[11AM] Squiggle update (ES) -
[1045AM] Wedges? one's favorite -

[1037AM] Divergence -
Quite a bit of divergence. RUT and TRAN are particularly lagging. ... befitting a fifth wave.
[1011AM] Squiggle count update (ES) -
This count assumes wave (iv) has bottomed. If it is not, this is a nice place to end a zigzag upward correction.

[822AM] Thoughts on alternative counts -
Another interesting possibility highlighted by Freestyle2 - a wave (b) pullback and possibly a running one, that can allow for further pullback without removing the upside potential.
See Freestyle2's thoughts and my response in yesterday's comments section.

[748AM] SPX count update -
And here's a look at the bigger count.
[740AM] Overnight update (ES) -
Not certain that the decline is over - one sees 9 waves down from the nominal top in ES, but 7 waves down in the RUT futures. However, the it does appear more corrective than impulsive. Squiggle count on the rebound from yesterday's PM low suggest possible moderate upward follow through in the very short term.