Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Real Time Update (8/31/10)

[EOD update] Click for EOD update here.

[228PM] Post FOMC minutes squiggles -

[156PM] triangle? -

[12PM]SPX/mini squiggle update - [108PM] Pre-FOMC minutes squiggles -

[953AM] ES squiggle update -

[745 AM] Cycles suggest a possible (short term) bottom this week -

[730AM] Overnight update (ES)
- Additional sell-off in ES overnight finally clarifies that yesterday's decline is a five and not a three.
- This allows one to eliminate the larger triangle (June to Sep.) wave (B) count highlighted in earlier.
- However, this also leaves the current top counts as extremely opposite to each other as ever.

[Blue] The bullish count expects wave [c]-up of 2-up to commence soon and the July low most likely to hold.

[Red] The bearish count expects a cascading and likely forceful decline as 3-down progresses.

Monday, August 30, 2010

Real Time Update (8/30/10)

[EOD update] Click for EOD update here.

[353PM] Pre-close squiggle update -

[210PM]SPX/mini squiggle update -

[1207PM]SPX/mini count update -

[1043AM] ES squiggle count update -

[720AM]Overnight update (ES) - bull trap
At least (w) of [ii]-up is done, could also be a complete (ii)-up of [iii]-down. The amount of retrace is larger than ideal.
The current peak is unlikely to be a third wave of the larger structure over the past three days. Cash indices which have broader participation made a lower low on Friday, but futures did not - how do one reconcile the two if one were to be bullish?
[8/27 1030PM] Overnight ES update - bull trap
Please also see the weekend update - Looming Point of Recognition (8/27/10) - for a detailed discussion.

Gunning for c = 1.618 x a ?
A double three or an upward flat structure over the past three trading session is approaching its end. Under this interpretation, we either have (ii)-up of [iii]-down of 3-down or (w)-up of [ii]-up of 3-down.